The Fifth Melenavenian Parliamentary Election

Prime Minister Lola Kulai's Democratic Socialist Party is expected to lose seats due to the resurgent popularity of Frank Niel's Green Party. The current second largest party, Léonard Barreau's Melenavenian Republican Party, is expected to gain a few seats but fall much short of becoming the largest party due to the increasing poll numbers of Lorraine Toussaint's Melenavenian Future Party taking potential voters away from the MRP. Toussaint's party also looks to be the biggest winner of the election in terms of seats gained, with even a possibility to eclipse Raymond Clérisseau's Democratic Worker's Party.

Danièle Longchambon's tenure as leader of the Leftist Libertarian Party appears to be quite tenuous, with public disagreements amongst party members about public spending harming the LLP's poll numbers. It is believed if Longchambon's party falls behind Toussaint's MFP that she may be removed as leader of the party as the MFP could replace the LLP in a potential coalition with the Kulai's DSP. The current coalition between the DSP and LLP has been viewed as less than ideal due to each party's conflicting views on government spending often gridlocking legislation and voters seem to believe that the MFP would be a much better coalition partner if the DSP does not win an outright majority as expected.

Finally, Jean-Pierre Pomeroy's National Party looks to gain a modest amount of seats even in the face of controversy surrounding a recent meeting between Pomeroy and a group of self-declared Neo-fascists earlier this year. Once again, Barreau has ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with the NP in the event that the MRP earns enough seats to be able to potentially form a government.

Enzo Lemoine's Industrial Revolution Party has floated the idea of dissolving and merging with the NP if the party fails to win any local or national seats during this election cycle, which seems very possible given that the majority of Melenavenians don't even know that the IRP still exists according to recent polls. Léo Périer's Anarchist Party also seems unlikely to have much success as the AP's reputation has yet to recover from a 2019 scandal in which former AP leader Nancy Duchamp seemed to float the idea of integrating far-right social policies into the party's manifesto in a hot mic incident.

No other party that has not had a seat in Parliament before looks likely to gain a foothold in the chamber.

UPDATE

All polling stations have submitted their vote and the DSP has come out with the most seats in total, 144, over 20 seats short of a majority. As predicted, the MFP is the biggest winner of the election with 18 seats won, giving the party 22 seats in total. Prime Minister Kulai and Lorraine Toussaint have already published a statement in which they state their intent to form a coalition government with each other as long as MFP members are given a third of the positions in Kulai's next cabinet. It remains to be seen which positions will be filled by the junior coalition member.

The second biggest winner of the election is Niel's Green Party which increased its seats from just 1 to 8 and Niel has expressed interest in joining in a coalition with the DSP and MFP in order to "have more flexibility in government" and to have "valuable views about our environment considered", though neither Kulai or Toussaint have allegedly spoken to Niel on the matter.

The biggest loser of the election is clearly the LLP, with the party sliding from the third largest to the joint fifth largest alongside the far-right National Party. Longchambon already announced on X (formerly known as Twitter) that she would be stepping down as leader of the party as soon as a clear replacement for her is presented.