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Russo-ukrainian war | Why Ukraine is No Longer Losing
A Dispatch from the Ukraine Frontline -
Updated May 22, 2026
The war in Ukraine began on February 20, 2014, when Russian troops entered Crimea. Later, Russia sent troops under their separatist agent Girkin to seize the state administration of the city of Slovyansk. After that, a hybrid war began on the territory of Ukraine, based in the Donbas region - the very place this dispatch author originates from.
While open troop movements became glaringly obvious later, Russia’s strategic planning, decision-making, and political preparation for a full-scale invasion actually began back in 2020. This period was marked by the Kremlin’s realization that Ukraine would not yield to the Minsk agreements under Russian terms, alongside constitutional changes in Moscow that secured Putin's long-term rule, and the systematic accumulation of massive gold reserves to withstand sanctions. Following the 2020 Belarusian protests, Belarus was fully integrated into the Kremlin's operational plans as a critical staging ground.
By 2021, this progressed into overt military buildups and massive exercises along the borders. On February 24, 2022, at 4 AM, the Russian Federation launched massive strikes on Ukrainian cities and initiated a multi-axis land offensive. Strategic cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Odesa, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Dnipro were heavily targeted. Troops advanced from occupied Crimea to capture Melitopol and Kherson while pushing toward Mykolaiv, from the temporarily occupied Donbas to seize the entire eastern front, and from the north -specifically Belarus, Kursk, and Bryansk - to strike Kyiv, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Chernihiv.
From 2022 to 2024, the war entered an intensely active phase defined by massive offensives and counteroffensives from both sides. However, between 2023 and 2025, Ukraine faced incredibly heavy losses. The grueling summer counteroffensive of 2023, the bitter fall of Avdiivka, and the Russian mega-offensive across the Donbas strained Ukrainian defenses to their absolute limits. Compounding this, between 2024 and 2026, international support began to waver. Western public opinion grew exhausted due to the heavy allocation of taxpayer funds to Ukraine, a discontent systematically fueled by Russia's sophisticated, large-scale cyber and psychological warfare aimed at discrediting Ukraine’s leadership and military.
Yet, by the summer of 2025, massive shifts began to occur, transitioning the conflict from a bloody war of attrition into a highly sophisticated technological showdown. The Russian offensive in the Donbas slowed down dramatically. Ukraine launched its first wave of coordinated, deep-tier strikes targeting Russian oil refineries and manufacturing facilities producing loitering munitions and missile components - specifically targeting the production lines of the Shahed-136/Geran-2, Iskander-K, Iskander-M, Kalibr, and Onyx missles. Long-range drone strikes systematically rained down on the Crimean Peninsula, which has been illegally occupied since 2014.
Concurrently, an unprecedented boom in the Ukrainian Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) took off, proving that European and American taxpayer money was being weaponized with maximum efficiency. Furthermore, following geopolitical shifts under the Trump administration, Russia lost several of its key global allies, including Maduro’s regime in Venezuela and the top leadership in Iran.
By 2025, Ukraine successfully established its own domestic heavy missile programs. The cruise missile lineup is spearheaded by the ultra-long-range FP-5 Flamingo (developed by Fire Point, capable of reaching up to 3,000 km) and the "Long Neptune" (R-360L)—a deeply modernized land-attack version of the indigenous anti-ship missile system that famously sank the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Significant breakthroughs were also achieved in strike UAVs, featuring battle-proven models like the Liutyi AN-196, Bucha, Chaklun, and the highly effective FP-1 and FP-2 tactical systems from Fire Point.
This massive technological turnaround is backed by concrete, verifiable data. On May 22, 2026, the Office of the President of Ukraine announced that Ukrainian forces have successfully liberated 590 square kilometers of territory since the beginning of the year. This progress is highly visible through tactical advancements in the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. In late February and early March, the Armed Forces of Ukraine executed complex sweeping operations and local counteroffensives, successfully liberating nearly a dozen front-line villages. This breakthrough was heavily catalyzed by SpaceX officially disabling unauthorized Starlink access for Russian forces. Depriving the occupiers of satellite internet dealt a critical blow to their field intelligence and command communications, creating a perfect tactical window for Ukraine to strike back.
Simultaneously, deep-tier strikes inside the Russian Federation have shifted to a relentless operational rhythm. Ukraine now strikes Russian oil refineries every few days, successfully slashing Russian domestic oil production by highly visible margins. Virtually every major refinery across the European territory of Russia has been hit. Ukraine initiated this systematic campaign to directly retaliate against Russia's ongoing bombardment of Ukrainian civilian cities, the methodical destruction of our energy grid, and to ultimately choke off the petrodollar revenues feeding the Kremlin's war economy.
The physical toll on Russia's infrastructure has led to unprecedented domestic fallout. Following pinpoint drone strikes on refining hubs in Perm and Tuapse, both cities were hit by hazardous "oil rains" that coated entire districts in thick, black petroleum residue and airborne soot. In Tuapse city, clearing the catastrophic aftermath at the oil terminal and local refinery took nearly a month, triggering severe air, water, and environmental pollution that radiated for hundreds of kilometers across the region.
It is also critical to highlight how Ukraine's military-industrial complex fundamentally reshaped aerial defense by developing a cutting-edge fleet of dedicated drone interceptors. These systems have suddenly become highly relevant in the Middle East due to the ongoing regional war involving Iran. Since late February, Iran began launching mass Shahed drone swarms across Middle Eastern countries, forcing regional defenses to expend anti-air missiles worth millions of dollars to down single $20,000 kamikaze drones. Ukraine pioneered the operational doctrine of using low-cost tactical interceptors to hunt down these assets, radically improving interception efficiency while slashing costs.
A single Ukrainian P1-SUN interceptor drone (affectionately dubbed 'Pisyun'. In jargon that means male genital organ) costs a mere $1,000 to $3,000 to produce. Yet, its operational impact is staggering. These agile aircraft are capable of chasing down and destroying between 20 to 50 complex aerial targets—including Shahed, Molniya, and Gerbera UAVs. Recognizing this game-changing capability, multiple Middle Eastern nations have already placed large-scale procurement orders for these Ukrainian systems, providing a massive boost to the reputation of Ukraine’s defense industry and injecting critical revenue into the national budget.
Furthermore, Russia has effectively lost operational control over the Black Sea. To date, official General Staff data and verified OSINT tracking confirm that Ukraine has destroyed or permanently disabled 33 Russian warships and boats, alongside 2 submarines.
Back in 2022, or even 2024, no one could have predicted that Ukraine would gain the capacity to launch retaliatory salvos of 300 to 700 drones and missiles deep into Russian territory in a single wave completely overwhelming and bypassing Russian air defense networks. Today, the reality has flipped: Russian school children, civilian workers, and state officials are routinely forced into bomb shelters. This represents an astronomical strategic leap for Ukraine and a humiliating degradation for the Russian Federation, which long boasted of being the "second strongest army in the world," while Ukraine has risen to become the most battle-hardened and highly innovative military force in Europe.
This structural collapse of Russia's strategic posture became humiliatingly evident during the May 9, 2026, Victory Day celebrations. To safely hold the annual military parade in Moscow, Vladimir Putin was forced to request a temporary ceasefire. Initially, Volodymyr Zelenskyy had proposed a unilateral "regime of silence" earlier, on May 5–6, which the Russian army failed to respect. Consequently, Putin resorted to appealing directly to US President Donald Trump, asking him to intermediate and request that Kyiv refrain from targeting the event.
Zelenskyy ultimately signed a targeted humanitarian decree permitting the parade, explicitly isolating only the precise coordinates of Red Square from the operational plans of Ukrainian strike weapons. This agreement ensured that while Moscow avoided catastrophic drone strikes for the day, the Kremlin remained paralyzed by fear. For the first time since 2007, the parade featured absolutely zero heavy military hardware or armored vehicles, consisting solely of marching foot columns. The entire event was rushed through in just 45 minutes, officially marking it as the shortest military parade in modern Russian history.
Meanwhile, on the active front lines, Russia’s multi-year inability to breach tactical Ukrainian defenses is perfectly symbolized by Mala Tokmachka. Since 2022, the Russian military has been utterly incapable of capturing this single, tiny village in the Zaporizhzhia region. Covering a mere 8.04 square kilometers, Mala Tokmachka has been transformed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine into an impenetrable "Maginot Line" style fortress, heavily saturated with fortified bunkers, anti-tank ditches, dragon's teeth, and dense, interconnected drone surveillance grids. The village stands as the ultimate gatekeeper on the direct path to the strategic city of Zaporizhzhia. Currently maintaining a resilient population of roughly 620,000 citizens (including 155,000 internally displaced persons), Zaporizhzhia remains a vital industrial, economic, and moral powerhouse for Ukraine’s survival. For four consecutive years, Russian state propaganda has repeatedly claimed the "capture" of the village, only to be debunked every time as their forces were repeatedly annihilated on the outer approaches or pushed back from temporary footholds. To sustain this stalled offensive, Russia has concentrated a massive force of nearly 45,000 troops on this single tactical axis, suffering catastrophic, disproportionate losses with over 18,000 Russian soldiers killed in action just for the desperate attempt to seize this tiny patch of Ukrainian soil.
The psychological turning point is now set in stone. Following a brutal Russian missile strike on May 14, 2026, where a Kh-101 cruise missile slammed into a Kyiv residential high-rise killing 24 civilians, including 3 children. Ukraine delivered a crushing asymmetric response. On May 17, Ukraine launched a coordinated strike of 700 long-range UAVs and domestic missiles blanketing Russia, neutralizing critical energy infrastructure, military airfields, and command hubs up to 2,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. During the chaotic engagement, Russian electronic warfare and air defense systems caused several incoming drones to lose guidance and crash into local civilian sectors, resulting in the deaths of 3 russian citizens a tragic consequence resting solely on the shoulders of the Kremlin leadership.
Back in 2024, it was genuinely difficult to imagine that our retaliatory air strikes inside the Russian Federation would systematically force ordinary Russians into bomb shelters yet today, this has become an undeniable reality. This tangible success offers clear, indisputable proof that European and American taxpayer funds are being utilized effectively. While Russian state propaganda continuously attempts to mock and discredit the Ukrainian government aggressively pushing narratives that massive corruption has caused all foreign aid to be stolen -the undeniable reality on the ground proves otherwise. The funds were weaponized properly, delivered straight to the production lines, and have successfully manifested as a powerful shield and an even more formidable sword for Ukraine.
Glory to Ukraine. Ukraine is no longer a weak victim










